In Early April, CBS 3 Springfield participated in a regional briefing from local experts in various aspects of climate change as it relates to New England. There was a lot to say about the potentials, and a few lingering questions.

The teleconference came just days before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases its Working Group II report, "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", designed to outline the latest scientific assessment of the regional impacts of global warming.

The briefing was moderated by Robert W. Corell, PhD - Global Change Program Director at the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment and a Senior Policy Fellow at the Policy Program of the American Meteorological Society.

The panelists were:

John Aber, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Natural Resources and Vice President for Research and Public Service at the University of New Hampshire. He is a leading expert on forest ecosystems whose major region of interest is the northeastern U.S. He was co-chair for the Forest Sector of the U.S. National Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability, 1998-2001.

Rob Evans, Ph.D., Associate Scientist in the Geology and Geophysics Department at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. He studies coastal change in response to sea level rise and other human-caused impacts that arise as a consequence.

Scott Ollinger, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Resources, University of New Hampshire. An expert on forest ecosystems, his areas of research include regional ecological analysis. He was a contributor and expert reviewer for the IPCC's special report in 1997, "The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability."

David Wolfe, Ph.D., Professor of Plant Ecology in the Department of Horticulture at Cornell University. He is a leading authority on the effects of climate change and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on plants, soils, and ecosystems, and has published numerous peer-reviewed research and review articles on this topic.

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The format was for the different panelists to make a 3-4 minute statement regarding what they have deduced to be potential effects of Global Warming in New England as it relates to their fields of specialty. The moderator pointed out that this was not a discussion on the predictive nature of Global Warming itself, but rather a highlight of findings based on certain projections of global temperature / sea surface levels, and the like.

Dr. Aber went first, and he described his take on things from his expertise. He explained that climate response to certain rises in temperature and such would be more pronounced further north from the Equator (meaning the poles would be modified the most, and the equator the least). He also highlighted the possiblity of the reduction (or complete loss) of Sugar Maple trees, quite common and popular in New England, owing to its new displacement outside its normal climate range. One of the things he said during his time that there could be a northward 'climate regime' shift such that New England could experience a future climate more akin to that of the present day Carolinas. Now, before all the cheers subsided at that news, he cautioned that this could have a more obvious negative effect on the Winter tourism programs that sustain much of New England (Winter sports and outdoor activities especially). Though there may be a larger growing season because of the moderating climate possibilities, there is also a higher probability of mid-season drought, and even Winter frosts (snow acts like an insulator to the ground, and prevents a deep frost...and it stands to reason if there is no snow...then this is more of a vulnerability).

Dr. Rob Evans was up next, and his specialty was in coastal effects. He explained that a plausible scenario for certain sea-level rises could result in problems of inundation (of low-lying areas), desalinization (if salt water makes it into the drinking system, or if fresh water makes it into the salt-water system), and erosion (a typical consequence of increased water flow across sediment). He also cautioned though that there's very limited modelling out there to attempt to handle all that may happen with various sediments and their reaction over years to a varying amount of sea-level rise. At this point, he has been measuring a sea-level rise of around 3mm/year, and was using that in his projections. Vulnerable locations from these effects were obvious barrier beaches (most notably down along the SE shore-line and islands), but perhaps other areas depending upon the extent of erosion or sea-level rise. Hurricane prevalence was still expected to be variable in this scenario (Global Warming presents pros and cons for hurricane development and frequency), but the damage from those systems could be seen growing because of any increased shoreline vulnerabilities. The economics of these possible affects are hard to divine, and he explained that there is no 'magic number' for marking thresholds for sea-level rise.

Dr. Ollinger was next, and he explained climate affects from an ecosystem perspective. He indicated that in these climate projections, there would be winners and losers. Under the projections he was describing, there could be around a 2-5 Celsius increase in temperature this century, and perhaps an increase in mean annual precipitation of 10-15% (anticipated almost entirely in Winter-time). Some species would find themselves outside their climate bounds, and be forced to migrate or suffer losses...and others in low numbers here locally could flourish, becoming more dominant. There also is an inherent problem associated with a lengthening of the growing season in that the pollinating species may not be 'in season'-- which could obviously be an issue. Another potential problem he pointed out could be increased difficulty for the timber industry which requires a frozen-solid ground on which to transport their heavy machinery off-road through the Winter (if there's a warmer Winter that reduces this reality or makes it less consistent).

Dr. David Wolfe was last up, and he discussed things from a horticultural perspective, but also had some things to say on an ecosystem level. He wanted to stress that there exists today clear evidence of climate change in the present. He pointed out that there has been a northward expansion of forest species. Moreover, there has been an quickening of the bloom dates of many species of plants (about 4-6 days sooner). Also, insects themselves would have a higher survival rate (whether this would be the 'good' pollinating insects, or the 'bad' ticks and earworms-- or both, was still a matter of conjecture). He indicated in his research there has been an envelope of potential projections through this century concerning temperature increases, with the low-end projections showing a 3-7 degree increase, and the high-end displaying a 6-16 degree warming. One other thing that he wanted to stress, that some of the greatest 'gainers' in horticulture with increased Carbon Dioxide (a primary 'greenhouse gas') would be weeds, rather than more beneficial plants. (That's always the way I guess).

After the four panelists finished speaking, it was time for questions from the audience. Most of the questions were from people asking for more information on specificl potential problems for their locallized areas, so the different scientists took a crack at those.