A few showers today, but still cool…then changes…
The Preface: Bruce said it well when he said in his note to me yesterday morning that, "Man, this forecast is tough!" It truly is difficult, because the "bust factor" is pretty high, meaning that any small deviation in where weather systems go could bring about wildly different results for Connecticut's weather. Having written this admission, I am happy to see that the models have shown some consistency among each other in the forecast for Monday-Thursday…and this forecast is similar to previous model runs.
The nitty-gritty on today: we expect more clouds than sunshine to prevail across the skyline Sunday as a warm front slowly meanders closer to the state. A few showers will crop up from time to time, moving into the state from the northwest. We'll still be on the more temperate side of the front, with readings likely in the mid to upper-60s with reasonably low humidity.
Tonight: as the front continues to saunter closer, a few models are suggesting a little spoke of energy will be moving through, sparking a more showers over the state. As they move through, readings will stay in the 50s and skies will be cloudy all night. This small wave should exit by morning, with a little light fog and low clouds in its wake by the start of the new week.
Monday through next weekend: The "front" that will be nearing us Sunday and Sunday night will be "playing jump rope" around Connecticut, sometimes going north, allowing for warm and steamy air to enter the state and sometimes shifting south, offering a slight cool down at times. Either way, with the front close by and a relatively active jet stream, there will be several waves of shower-making low pressure passing through Connecticut. Tuesday appears to be a day when the front hedges north, allowing variably to partly cloudy skies and warm, steamy air into the state, with highs inland likely in the low/mid-80s. A few thunderstorms will fire up in the late-day sticky air. The front will meander back south Wednesday, with cloudy skies likely, as well as scattered showers and highs in the 70s. Another warm steamy, unsettled burst will come Thursday as the front snakes its way north again.
A more potent low pressure system and cold front will arrive Friday with its own thunderstorms and showers. The models are "all over the place" on the timing of this system, its strength and the potency of the cold air behind the cold front. What we can discern right now is that Friday will likely be warm and unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once the front clears, cooler, drier air will flow into New England Saturday, just in time for the beginning of Memorial Day weekend.
Hope you are having a great weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron